What is the development trend of electric vehicles?

 

While promoting the rapid development of the world economy and providing people with various conveniences, the automobile industry has also caused a huge crisis in energy and environment. Since electric vehicles use electric energy as a power source, they have the advantages of being clean and pollution-free, and electric energy can be obtained in various ways. Therefore, electric vehicles are generally considered to be extremely important means of transportation in the 21st century. In recent years, electric vehicles have been highly valued by governments around the world and have been established as an important way to ensure energy security and transition to a low-carbon economy. U.S. President Barack Obama has deployed and implemented a $4.8 billion battery and electric vehicle R&D and industrialization program to promote the development of advanced battery technology and electric vehicle components. In addition, $400 million has been invested in demonstration projects in the field of electric vehicle infrastructure. Japan regards the development of electric vehicle components as the core content of the "low-carbon revolution" and invests 200 million US dollars in the development of power batteries for electric vehicles. The goal is to halve the cost of batteries, and it plans to achieve a target of 13.5 million "next-generation vehicles", mainly electric vehicles, by 2020. Germany released its "National Electric Vehicle Development Plan" in August 2009, focusing on pure electric vehicles and plug-in electric vehicles. The federal government has invested 500 million euros in promoting the development of the entire electric vehicle field, striving to make the total number of electric vehicles in Germany exceed 1 million by 2020. France plans to invest 400 million euros in the research and development of hybrid and pure electric vehicles in 4 years. The government also plans to invest 1.5 billion euros in the form of loans to vigorously build a charging network, and strive to make the number of various charging facilities reach 4 million by 2020. In 2009, the United Kingdom released the "Low Carbon Vehicle Scheme", which will fund the research and development of electric vehicles and hybrid vehicle components, and also provide subsidies for the purchase of hybrid and pure electric vehicles. The South Korean government has also invested about $300 million in research and development of high-efficiency batteries and other components for electric vehicles. After slow growth in 2012 and 2013, global sales of new energy vehicles exceeded 300,000 in 2014, far higher than 140,000 in 2012 and 200,000 in 2013. Global sales of electric vehicles exceeded 500,000 in 2015, with new models coming on the market. In 2015, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in major countries were: 115,155 in the United States, 25,328 in Japan, 188,726 in China, 27,081 in France, 34,336 in Norway, 43,282 in the Netherlands, 28,188 in the United Kingdom, and 24,171 in Germany. Japan and the United States maintain the lead in the number of electric vehicle brands, while China's new energy vehicle brands have made rapid progress and become more and more present in the international electric vehicle market. BYD Qin jumped from No. 40 in 2013 to No. 7 in 2014, with sales of 14,747 units; Zotye E20 ranked 13th with a sales volume of 7,341 units, and the total sales volume of BAIC E150/E200EV electric vehicles was 5,234 units, ranking 16th; Chery QQ3EV and BYD e6 ranked 12th and 20th respectively, with sales of 7,866 and 3,611 units respectively. A total of 7 models from 5 brands in China entered the top 20 in global sales.

Global Sales of Electric Vehicles and Plug-in Hybrids

Global Sales of Electric Vehicles and Plug-in Hybrids

Historical and targeted electric shares of new passenger vehicle sales by market

Historical and targeted electric shares of new passenger vehicle sales by market

 

The Chinese government attaches great importance to the research and development of new energy and electric vehicle technologies. At the policy level, the government work report of the State Council in 2005 proposed "to encourage and develop energy-saving and environmentally friendly vehicles"; "Outline of the Eleventh Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" proposes to "enhance the independent innovation capability of the auto industry, and encourage the development and use of energy-saving, environmentally friendly and new-type fuel vehicles"; in February 2006, the "National Medium- and Long-Term Science and Technology Development Plan (2006-2020)" issued by the State Council listed "low energy consumption and new energy vehicles" as a priority theme and cutting-edge technology; the National Development and Reform Commission proposed in the "Automobile Industry Development Policy" that "the automobile industry should actively carry out research and industrialization of emerging power such as electric vehicles and vehicle power batteries in combination with the national energy structure adjustment strategy and emission standards, focus on the development of hybrid vehicle and sedan diesel engine technology”, and require “the state to take measures in scientific and technological research, technological transformation, industrialization of new technologies, policy environment, etc. to promote the production and use of hybrid vehicles”; In the "medium and long-term special plan for energy conservation" and the corresponding ten key energy-saving projects, it is emphasized that "the development of clean vehicles such as hybrid vehicles, gas vehicles, alcohol fuel vehicles, fuel cell vehicles, and solar-powered vehicles"; the "China Energy Conservation Technology Policy Outline" also emphasizes the need to "study new power such as electric vehicles". Four national ministries and commissions launched the demonstration project of "1000 vehicles in ten cities" and "private purchase of new energy vehicles", which effectively promoted the industrialization of energy-saving and new energy vehicles. By the end of 2009, more than 5,000 new energy vehicles had been put into demonstration operation in 13 demonstration cities across the country. In 2010, the "Ten Cities, Thousand Vehicles" demonstration cities increased to 25,210. In September, the "Decision of the State Council on Accelerating the Cultivation and Development of Strategic Emerging Industries" clearly listed new energy vehicles as my country's seven major strategic emerging industries. In terms of R&D funding support, since 2000, the Ministry of Science and Technology has successively launched the "Tenth Five-Year" Electric Vehicle Major Project and the "Eleventh Five-Year" Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicle Major Project, as well as the "Tenth Five-Year" electric vehicle key technology and system integration major projects, supporting the deep research and development of the "three vertical and three horizontal" technology strategic layout, pure electric vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles, fuel cell electric vehicles and motors, electronic controls, and batteries have made significant progress. China has basically mastered the matching and integrated design of the power system of the pure electric vehicle, and the control technology of the whole vehicle. The power and energy consumption of the prototype vehicle are comparable to those of foreign countries, and has achieved large-scale production and demonstration operations of small pure electric vehicles and large buses. In September 2013, the four ministries and commissions issued the "Notice on Continuing the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles". In November 2013, it was announced that 28 cities or regions including Beijing, Tianjin and Taiyuan were identified as the first batch of cities for the promotion of new energy vehicles. In January 2014, the four ministries and commissions announced 12 cities or city clusters including Shenyang and Changchun as the second batch of cities for the promotion of new energy vehicles. A total of 39 cities (groups) and 88 cities were included in the cities for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles (groups). In the new promotion policy, the subsidy amount is based on the pure electric mileage of the passenger car, and the subsidy is 35,000 yuan per car for plug-in hybrid electric passenger cars (including extended range) with a mileage of more than 50km, and the mileage of pure electric passenger cars is 35,000 yuan. A subsidy of 35,000 yuan per vehicle above 80km and below 150km; the subsidy is 50,000 yuan per vehicle above 150km and below 250km; the subsidy is 60,000 yuan per vehicle above 250km. For pure electric buses, the subsidy standard is 300,000 yuan to 500,000 yuan per vehicle, and each hybrid electric bus is subsidized by 250,000 yuan. In addition, pure electric special vehicles are subsidized by 2,000 yuan per kilowatt of battery capacity, with a total subsidy of no more than 150,000 yuan per vehicle; the subsidy standard for fuel cell promotion and application is divided into passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles, with a subsidy of 500,000 yuan for each vehicle. According to statistics, in 2013, my country produced 17,533 new energy vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 39.7%, including 14,243 pure electric vehicles and 3,290 plug-in hybrid vehicles. In 2014, the cumulative production of new energy vehicles was 83,900, an increase of nearly 4 times year-on-year. Among them, the production of pure electric passenger vehicles was 37,800 units, a year-on-year increase of three times, and the production of plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles was 16,700 units, a year-on-year increase of nearly 22 times. From January to May 2015, the cumulative production of new energy vehicles was 53,600, an increase of nearly three times year-on-year. Among them, the production of pure electric passenger vehicles was 25,800 units, a year-on-year increase of nearly three times, and the production of plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles was 13,700 units, a year-on-year increase of three times; the production of pure electric commercial vehicles was 9,248 units, a year-on-year increase of nearly 6 times, and the production of plug-in hybrid electric commercial vehicles was 4,761 units, a year-on-year increase of 58%. It is estimated that by 2020, the annual sales volume of China's own brand pure electric and plug-in new energy vehicles will exceed 1 million, accounting for more than 70% of the domestic market; by 2025, the annual sales volume of new energy vehicles that are in line with the international advanced level will be 3 million, accounting for more than 80% of the domestic market.

Comparison of NEV subsidies in 2018-2019

Comparison of NEV subsidies in 2018-2019

Sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in China by year (2011-2020)

Sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in China by year (2011-2020)

 

In recent years, with the increasing investment in the research and development of pure electric vehicle technology in various countries, significant progress has been made in key technologies such as vehicle power batteries, motors and their control systems. The wide application of power electronics, control and information technology has promoted the in-depth development and gradual improvement of pure electric vehicle technology, the reliability and service life of products have been significantly improved, and the cost has been effectively controlled. Pure electric vehicle technology has developed rapidly around the world, and a number of pure electric vehicles equipped with advanced power batteries have entered or are about to enter the consumer market. Various high and new technologies have begun to be widely used in pure electric vehicles, giving electric vehicles new vitality and development opportunities, mainly as follows:

① The integrated optimization technology of the power system continues to improve, and the energy-saving effect continues to improve;

②Power battery technology has developed rapidly, and high-performance lithium-ion batteries have gradually replaced traditional lead-acid batteries and nickel-metal hydride batteries, and have made great progress in specific energy, specific power, safety, reliability, cycle life and cost ;

③The high-efficiency integrated electric drive system replaces the traditional DC motor;

④ The wide application of electric auxiliary system improves the energy utilization rate and performance of the vehicle;

⑤The application of network system promotes the modularization and intelligence of electric vehicles;

⑥Lightweight technology and electrical and structural safety technology have been systematically applied in electric vehicles;

⑦ The promotion and application of pure electric vehicles as a system engineering, not only pays attention to the research and development of the vehicle itself, but also starts the planning and construction of infrastructure such as charging stations;

⑧In concept models, cutting-edge technologies such as in-wheel motors and wire-controlled technologies have been initially applied;

⑨ Pure electric buses have become the most effective means for urban energy conservation, emission reduction and grid load balancing, and the demonstration, promotion and application process of pure electric buses has been accelerated.

The current development trend of pure electric vehicle technology is mainly manifested in the wide application of various high and new technologies, the diversification of forms, the full development of demonstration operation and commercial promotion. Compared with ordinary cars, passenger cars and buses in the public domain run in cities, with limited activity areas and ranges, so the charging places are relatively fixed, and there are corresponding parking places, which provides convenience for the charging of pure electric vehicles. In terms of cost, pure electric buses are usually purchased in batches by the government, and the quantity is large, so it is conducive to the industrial production of pure electric vehicle enterprises. In terms of subsidies, since there are fewer companies operating pure electric buses, the government can formulate more flexible subsidy measures, which is also conducive to the promotion and use of pure electric vehicles. In general, the development of pure electric vehicles presents two directions: pure electric buses and sanitation vehicles mainly used in public areas such as urban public transportation, and small pure electric vehicles mainly used for personal daily travel. "The layering and networking of control, the standardization and modularization of vehicle power supply, and the high integration of power transmission" have become the mainstream of technology development.

Influenced by the increasingly stringent regulations on vehicle energy conservation and emissions and the successive introduction of preferential policies for new energy vehicles by various governments, hybrid vehicles have entered a stage of rapid growth from small batch production. It has been commercialized and applied in countries and regions such as the United States, Japan and Europe. Hybrid technologies represented by Toyota THS, Honda MA, European and American dual-mode and various forms of BG/SG mild hybrids are developing rapidly. The continuous improvement of hybrid special engine technology and hybrid degree (the continuous extension of pure electric driving range) has become the characteristics of the development of hybrid vehicle technology. At the same time, the technical reserves of hybrid vehicles in the research and development process also provide experience for the diversification of future vehicle energy and power. "Hybrid power supply (multi-power hybrid), hybrid engine (motor + internal combustion engine integrated design), hybrid powertrain" and other in-depth and comprehensive hybrid design have become the general trend of hybrid vehicle technology development.

 

Hydrogen Fuel Cell Cars

Fuel cell electric vehicles still have high hopes, and the technology has been further developed. In the next 20 years, the application rate of fuel cell vehicles will also accelerate; "Improving the reliability and environmental adaptability of the fuel cell power system, reducing the system cost, and improving the construction of the infrastructure network of hydrogen production-hydrogen storage-hydrogen refueling stations" are still the key to technological breakthroughs; "Integrated design, distributed network control of hybrid, fuel cell and electric drive" has become the mainstream of technology development. China's fuel cell technology has achieved breakthrough progress in the past 10 years, and has made significant progress in power density, life and stability, but there is still a certain gap from the international advanced level, such as fuel cell vehicle integration technology , fuel cell engine technology and high-pressure hydrogen storage systems, etc., directly restrict the development and technological progress of China's fuel cell vehicles.

As a common technology, electric drive, power supply, vehicle integration and control optimization have always been the core and focus of electric vehicle technology research. With the advancement of technology, it has shown diversified solutions, excellent performance and new features. As the key to the development of electric vehicle technology, high power density electric drive technology, group application technology of power battery packs, integrated design and comprehensive control technology of electric vehicles, and promotion and application of electric vehicles will still be the focus and core of the long-term development of electric vehicles.