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China is the world's largest production base for two-wheelers and the world's largest exporter of two-wheeled electric vehicles.
In 2022, global shipments of lithium batteries for two-wheelers and self-balancing vehicles will be 25.2GWh, up 0.8% year-on-year, and the main reason for the slowdown is that lithium electrification of two-wheelers in the Chinese market is less than expected.
1. The development of lithium batteries for two-wheeler has slowed down
- Core raw material costs have risen
This has led to a decline in the penetration rate of lithium-ion two-wheeled vehicles. In the current market, the cost of lithium batteries for two-wheeled vehicles is still very high compared to lead-acid batteries, and the price of lithium batteries is about 2-3 times that of lead acid battery.
- The market is dominated by lithium batteries
Supplemented by lithium iron phosphate. At present, the cost of cathode accounts for nearly 70%, which is the material with the highest proportion of cost in battery cells. Lithium carbonate is the core source of lithium manganese oxide and lithium iron phosphate cathode cost, accounting for more than 80% of the current cost.
- The demand for lithium batteries is decreasing
As a result, sales of lithium-ion two-wheelers declined. Driven by shared motorcycles, the demand for lithium batteries for two-wheelers has soared, accounting for about 40% of all lithium battery shipments for two-wheelers in China.
In most areas, the management of motorcycles has begun to tighten, the promotion of shared motorcycles has encountered resistance, and the expansion of the entire industry has slowed down rapidly.
2. Segment of lithium batteries for two-wheeler
The European, Japanese and South Korean markets have a high degree of lithium electrification of two-wheeled electric vehicles. At present, the two-wheeled vehicles in the Chinese market are mainly two-wheeled electric vehicles, and the power of two-wheeled electric vehicles is mainly lead-acid batteries.
And the penetration rate of lithium-ion two-wheeled electric vehicles is less than 20%. The two-wheeled electric vehicles in the European market and the Japanese and South Korean markets are dominated by E-bike models, and almost all E-bikes are powered by lithium batteries, and the degree of lithium electrification of two-wheeled electric vehicles is relatively high.
In recent years, a number of motorcycle companies have begun to deploy two-wheeled electric vehicles. European countries lead in the number of motorcycles. Another market: the European electric treadmill space is expected to be 8 million units in the long term.
Europe is a stock market with 20 million bicycles sold annually. At present, the total number of bicycles in Europe is about 250 million, and demand has remained stable for many years, with sales remaining at an average of 20 million units per year.
Referring to Japan, assuming that the long-term penetration rate of electric treadmills in Europe reaches 40%, the market space for annual sales in the future will be about 8 million units.
3. The future development trend of two-wheeled vehicle products
- Lightweight
user demand for battery life and intelligent functions has led to an increase in the quality of the whole vehicle. The single battery weight reduction will slowly develop into vehicle weight reduction, and the lightweight design of the vehicle will go further.
- Platformization
The rise in raw materials such as 12v 100ah lithium ion batteries has led to an increase in production costs, and the use of platform development can achieve universal use of parts. This means that the parts can be modularized, which can respond well to the diverse needs of users and shorten the research and development cycle.
- Intelligent
demand intelligence is gradually standardized, and entertainment and personalized functions have become the main points of difference. With the improvement of the technical level and the reduction of the cost after the scale effect, the intelligent functions of two-wheeled electric vehicles are becoming more and more abundant.
Such as vehicle positioning, keyless start, automatic locking, electronic fence, side support induction, ride induction, 12 volt 200ah lithium battery power monitoring and other intelligence directly related to riding safety, parking and parking safety will become the standard configuration of products.
4. The relationship between the battery swap market and batteries
- Battery swapping is focused on the rider
Simple, efficient, time-saving and labor-saving, the best battery swap station system fits the high power consumption characteristics of the rider group, avoids the waste of time and energy waiting for charging, and also solves the anxiety of range to a large extent.
Moreover, compared to the cost of charging, the price of battery replacement is not much higher. From the perspective of opportunity cost, it can also save the cost of purchasing and replacing batteries, which is also economically advantageous.
All kinds of factors make the replacement charge popular among the rider group, integrating a number of institutions. At present, the penetration rate of battery swapping in the field of takeaway and express two-wheeled vehicle delivery is expected to exceed 50%.
- Daily demand for battery swapping is small
From the perspective of scale, the distribution vehicle is only at the level of tens of millions. As the world's largest market for electric two-wheelers, this level is not enough to reach the level of profitability. From the perspective of business logic alone, if you want to become bigger and stronger, it is impossible not to consider market segments.
At present, the battery swap platform uses lithium batteries and needs to be swapped out of the models, and all localities strictly implement safety management regulations, and centralized charging has become a compliant and mainstream way to supplement energy.
However, the number of centralized charging facilities is far from meeting the requirements of the majority of car owners. And for the home battery swapping stations business model, this seems to be a good opportunity, but in reality, it is very difficult to do.
At present, in order to meet the needs of riders, the battery swap packages on the market are mainly limited to the number of battery swaps, but for ordinary residents, this is obviously unattractive.
5. Conclusion
Electric two-wheelers are now very mature, and the performance of lead-acid batteries has reached the upper limit, which seriously restricts the range of electric two-wheelers due to their low energy density. Lithium batteries have been widely used in electric two-wheelers.
Compared to lead-acid batteries, lithium batteries have high energy density, small size, long service life, excellent charging and discharging performance, and longer battery life. The downside is that it's expensive.
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