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Lithium iron phosphate battery refers to a lithium ion battery using lithium iron phosphate as the positive electrode material. Lithium iron phosphate industry refers to the lithium iron phosphate material used for the positive electrode. In this way, lithium iron phosphate materials are very popular in lithium iron phosphate industry. If you want to learn more about it, you can check our article of top 10 lithium iron phosphate materials companies.
Lithium iron phosphate industry chain
Iron-lithium batteries have advantages in economy, safety, and cyclability. In the future, iron-lithium batteries are expected to rapidly increase the penetration rate in the fields of power, energy storage, power tools, and electric two-wheelers. It is estimated that the installed capacity of iron-lithium batteries in 23 years will be more than four times that of iron-lithium batteries in 20 years. It is expected that the newly installed capacity of electrochemical energy storage in the world will increase by 114% in 2021. Thus, lithium iron phosphate industry is developed as well.
The compound growth rate from 2020 to 2025 is 35.35%. It is predicted that in 2021, the world's newly installed electrochemical energy storage capacity will exceed 10GW for the first time, a year-on-year increase of 114%. In 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of electrochemical energy storage will reach 64.3GW, and the average compound growth rate from 2020 to 2025 will be 35.25%. The newly installed capacity of electrochemical energy storage in China will increase by 77% in 2021, and the compound average growth rate from 2021 to 2025 will be 57.4%.
Phosphate rock of lithium iron phosphate
Carding of phosphorus chemical industry chain
The raw materials of phosphorus chemical industry are mainly phosphate rock, sulfuric acid, coke and silica. The midstream preparation is dominated by wet and thermal methods. Downstream demand is dominated by agriculture and industry.
The development of phosphate rock in China
Companies in China that have higher-grade phosphate rock resources and have technological advantages in phosphate rock mining and processing have significant cost advantages. The gross profit margin of the business is maintained at a high profit margin of 30%-50%.
According to different properties of phosphate rock, the processing methods of phosphate rock include flotation, scrubbing and de-sludge, gravity separation, chemical leaching, combined beneficiation, photoelectric sorting, magnetic capping method, etc.
Among them, flotation is the most widely used beneficiation process for phosphate rock, and scrubbing and desilting and heavy medium separation have also been successfully applied in lithium iron phosphate industry. In addition, in order to adapt to different mining requirements, photoelectric sorting methods, magnetic separation methods, etc. have also been comprehensively applied.
Supply and demand and distribution of phosphate rock
From the perspective of the world, the reserves of phosphate rock are not evenly distributed, and Morocco and Western Sahara occupy 73.3% of the world's phosphate rock reserves. But in terms of output, China contributes more than 50% of the world's output almost every year. However, considering the transportation cost, the price of Morocco's phosphate rock transported to China is high, and there is no competitive advantage.Introduction of iron phosphate
Iron phosphate alpha
Judging from the cost, gross profit and price of iron phosphate, the iron phosphate industry is essentially an industry that earns processing fees. The rise in the price of raw material phosphoric acid even squeezes the profits of iron-lithium precursors. Taking the iron phosphate company that uses the zero-valent iron process as an example, phosphoric acid accounts for 82.5% of the raw material cost, ranking first in the raw material. But in phosphoric acid, phosphorus element and acid element each account for more than 40% of the raw material cost.Competitive landscape
Due to the future supply of the industry will exceed demand, and the difficulty of expanding production of iron phosphate is relatively small. In the future, the iron phosphate production enterprises that "integrate mines, electricity and iron phosphorus" will have core competitive advantages. Process cost advantage: the preparation of ferrous iron is greater than that of zero-valent iron.
Cost advantage of raw materials: phosphorus source, iron source preparation > phosphorus source preparation > iron source preparation > pure processing. Cost advantage of energy and power side: self-provided power supply (with hydropower and thermal power plants) > provinces with low electricity prices > provinces with high electricity prices.
Supply and demand of iron phosphate
1 ton of lithium iron phosphate cathode (carbothermic reduction method) requires about 0.95 tons of iron phosphate precursor, liquid phase method and high temperature solid phase method (not required). It is estimated that the demand for iron phosphate in 21, 22 and 23 is 266,000, 434,200 and 766,700 tons respectively in lithium iron phosphate industry.
The downstream demand is strong, and the demand in 23 years has nearly tripled compared with the demand in 21 years. Ferric phosphate: With the growth of demand, a tight balance may be ushered in in 21 years, but with the expansion of production by industry giants, the lithium iron phosphate industry as a whole will oversupply in the next few years.
Demand: It is estimated that the actual demand of the lithium iron phosphate industry in 21, 22, and 23 is 266,000, 43,42, and 766,700 tons of iron phosphate, respectively. Effective production capacity: 28.4, 62.9, 1.209 million tons in 21, 22 and 23 respectively.
Lithium iron phosphate cathode
Market share of lithium iron phosphate cathode: The pattern in the past 20 years is relatively scattered, and the concentration will increase in the future.
Competitive landscape
In terms of output, the concentration of lithium iron phosphate cathodes in 2020 is relatively scattered, and the market share of the second to fifth places is not much different in lithium iron phosphate industry. CR3/CR5 was 49.8% and 76.3% respectively (CR3/CR5 was 54.06% and 62.92% in 2019), CR3 decreased but CR5 increased. The main reason is that CATL and BYD's orders drive the shipments of second-tier manufacturers Yuneng and Wanrun.
In terms of production capacity, with the expansion of production capacity of leading manufacturers in the future, it is expected that the concentration of lithium iron phosphate cathode will be greatly improved in 2023, with CR3/CR5 being 69.32% and 84.10% respectively in lithium iron phosphate industry. Among them, the German nanometer production capacity is the largest, accounting for 30.25% of the entire industry.
In recent years, the decline in the gross profit margin of the industry is mainly due to the squeeze of ternary lithium battery in the market share of LFP batteries. In the future, with the increase in LFP battery shipments and price increases, the gross profit margin of LFP cathode companies is expected to rebound. From the perspective of branches, the gross profit margin of Defang Nano, which has a liquid phase method, high capacity utilization rate and scale effect, is basically much higher than that of other companies.
Supply and demand
Stimulated by the low cost of lithium iron phosphate industry and the iteration of lithium iron phosphate battery technology, lithium iron phosphate batteries have begun to rebound from the end of 2020. In 2021, demand will explode rapidly, and the world installed capacity of iron and lithium in 21-23 is expected to be 126.3, 189.6, 251.6GWh, yoy+153.80%, 50.05%, and 32.73%, respectively.
Affected by the resurgence of LFP batteries, shipments of LFP cathode materials are expected to increase significantly. In 21, 22 and 23, the world LFP cathode demand was 29.06, 43.61, 578,800 tons, yoy+153.81%, 50.06%, 32.73%. The effective supply is 37.2, 64.7, 1.157 million tons, yoy+39.1%, 79.3%, 73.5%. In 2021, the lithium iron phosphate cathode material will be in a state of tight balance in lithium iron phosphate industry.
Leading battery factories will basically lock in high-quality LFP cathode production capacity. According to the data, the high-quality production capacity in the industry is in short supply, and the upstream lithium carbonate price increase can be smoothly conducted. Leading LFP suppliers are expected to Get both volume and price in lithium iron phosphate industry.
Summary
In the rapid development of new energy vehicles and energy storage markets, CTP/blade battery/JTM technologies continue to narrow the energy density gap between lithium iron phosphate industry and ternary battery pack systems, and the industry chain continues to be under pressure to reduce costs, and many vehicle manufacturers are generous.
Under the background of planning to carry lithium iron phosphate batteries, it is expected that by 2025, the shipment of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials will reach 2.4 million tons, about 5 times that of 2021, and the compound growth rate from 2021 to 2025 will reach 49.5% in lithium iron phosphate industry.
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